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line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 黑体; color: black; font-size: 18pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">中国利率市场化的左右�?/font></span></p> <p style="text-align: center; line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">申世�?/font></span></p> <p style="text-align: center; line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt" lang="EN-US"><font style="line-height: 200%"> </font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">几十年来，我们不断深化经济体制改革，发挥市场在资源配置中的基础性作用。新一届政府成立后，改革作为最大红利更受重视，相关领域的市场化改革加速推进�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">7</span>�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">20</span>日，央行决定全面放开金融机构贷款利率管制。从<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1996</span>年开始，在历经贷款利率浮动区间的数次调整，以及一系列准备工作后，中国利率市场化终于迈出了实质性的一步�?/font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">（一）缘何先迈“左脚”？</font></span></b></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">如果把存款利率和贷款利率看作是利率市场化的两只脚，那么，这次金融机构贷款利率管制的全面放开，意味着我国利率市场化的左脚率先迈出。之所以看作是“左脚”，是因为贷款利率是金融机构对贷款的定价，而贷款属于银行资产，处于银行资产负债表的左边。相对应的，存款属于银行的负债，处于资产负债表的右边�?/font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt" lang="EN-US">1.</span></b><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">国际经验表明先左后右的渐进路线更易获得成功�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">我国金融体系建立时间较晚，利率市场化进程的推进，要充分汲取先行经济体的经验教训，以尽可能少走弯路。国际来看，那些先放开贷款利率后存款利率，以及遵循渐进式放开存款利率的经济体，其利率市场化进程对国内金融体系的冲击明显要小，也更易取得成功。例如，美国和日本单纯实现存款利率的市场化就分别用去�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">14</span>年和<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">15</span>年，韩国<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1991</span>�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">8</span>月出台的《对利率放开管制的中长期计划》明确提出利率市场化改革按照“先贷款后存款”的原则分阶段进行，而泰国（泰国<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1990</span>年完全取消全部定期存款利率上限，<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1992</span>年取消所有贷款利率限制）、马来西亚（<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1971</span>年，马来西亚首先放开<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">4</span>年期存款利率�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1978</span>年完全取消对商业银行存款利率的管制）等东南亚经济体，在放开存款利率上过于激进的做法，或者先放开存款利率的做法，引发了不同程度的债务和金融危机�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt" lang="EN-US">2.</span></b><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">中国利率市场化“左脚”早已数次小步前行�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">如前所述，利率市场化包含贷款利率和存款利率的市场化，尤其是指银行存款利率上限和贷款利率下限的彻底放开。相对于存款利率，我国货币当局在贷款利率市场化方面的调整和准备要充分地多。早�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2004</span>年，我国就开始为贷款利率的市场化做准备，中央银行逐步取消贷款利率管制，先是取消了上浮封顶，然后逐步将下浮区间扩大至<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">0.9</span>倍�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">0.85</span>倍和<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">0.8</span>倍，这一过程中，银行放贷的自主定价权不断增加。尤其是<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2009</span>年以来，执行基准利率的银行贷款占比持续走低，从超�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">35%</span>降低�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">25%</span>以下，相应地上下浮动贷款占比不断提高。可以说，本次贷款利率管制的完全放开，是在前期一次次小步探索的基础上自然而然的结果。相对于贷款利率下浮区间的扩大，我国直到<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2012</span>年才允许存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1.1</span>倍，无论从时间上还是力度上，都不及贷款利率放开准备地充分�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt" lang="EN-US">3.</span></b><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">先迈“左脚”是出于维护银行业稳健运营的需要�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt" lang="EN-US">1997</span><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">年亚洲危机�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2008</span>年次贷危机和欧债危机告诉我们，金融体系的稳健关对经济系统的良性运行至关重要。正因如此，十八大报告明确提出要维护金融稳定。目前我国金融体系中，银行业总资产占比在<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">94%</span>左右，因此，银行业的稳定是整个金融体系稳定的基石。尽管近年来各商业银行大力发展中间业务，非利息收入占比明显提高，但银行的主要利润来源还是存贷利差，利息收入占比在<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">80%</span>左右。换言之，银行五分之四的利润源于资金投放的收益（贷款利率）减去资金获取的成本（存款利率），这种存贷差支撑了我国银行业资产的快速增长和不良资产的消化。相对于银行对于企业的相对强势地位，对银行利润影响最大的，无疑是存款利率。在当前金融脱媒趋势下，存款利率一旦放开，银行存贷利差势必会急速缩减（这在美国和日本利率市场化进程中已经体现，一些拉美国家的存款利率在放开管制之后甚至一度飙升近<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">40</span>个百分点），银行面临的利率风险显著上升，将对整个银行体系尤其是中小银行经营带来明显挑战。正因如此，先放开对银行运营影响较小的贷款利率，以渐进式的方式逐步降低银行对息差水平的依赖程度，是我国推进利率市场化的合适步骤�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">（二）“右脚”其实也在动</font></span></b></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">利率市场化的右脚即为存款利率的市场化，历史上看，存款利率放开是利率市场化改革进程中最为关键、风险最大的阶段。马克思曾说由产品向商品的转化，可谓惊险的一跃。事实上，存款利率管制的取消，也可视为利率市场化改革中最惊险的一跃。一旦把握不好，可能造成银行大面积倒闭，更严重者甚至造成市场化进程的彻底失败。正因如此，相对于“左脚”，我国利率市场化的“右脚”迈的相对缓慢。但是，利率市场化不可阻挡的进程，也使得存款利率管制的放开正以更加缓和和隐蔽的方式推进，进程虽缓但并非不动�?/font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">一方面，存款利率的上下限早已进行了调整�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">早在<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2004</span>年，我国货币当局就已允许银行存款利率下浮且下不设底，存款利率市场化正式启动。到<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2012</span>年，存款利率上浮的区间也开始扩大，中央银行将存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率的<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">1.1</span>倍。正因为存款利率上限的松动，<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2012</span>年也被看作我国利率市场化进程中具有里程碑意义的一年。存款利率浮动区间调整后，各家银行迅速将各期限利率调整至最高区间，客观上对于商业银行应对利差缩小的能力进行了一次检验。类似于贷款利率的市场化进程，存款利率预计也将遵循着上浮区间逐步扩大直至完全放开的路径推进�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">另一方面，“右脚”已通过替代方式悄然而动�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">正如周小川行长所言，存款方面可通过促进替代性负债产品发展及扩大利率浮动区间等方式推进。这种替代性的银行理财。银行理财产品诞生于<span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2003</span>年， <span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">2005</span>年后步入快速成长通道，截至今年二季度末，我国银行理财市场存续规模已达�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">9.85</span>万亿，每季理财产品发行数量超�?span style="line-height: 200%" lang="EN-US">9000</span>只。作为在竞争激烈的存款市场揽储的一种策略（存贷比限制下，银行放贷能力的高低严重依赖于存款规模），银行理财产品突破了存款利率上限约束，它发挥了类似于存款的功能，但却具有高于同期限存款利率的优势。这实际上变相地扩大了存款利率的上浮区间，在某种程度上预演了存款利率市场化的情景�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">（三）安全涉过深水区需要充分准�?/font></span></b></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt"><font style="line-height: 200%">各国利率市场化的完成均以存款利率上限放开为标志。我国贷款利率放开后，也就意味着利率市场化改革进入了深水区。这是利率市场化的核心和最艰难一步，只有做好配套和准备工作，达到万事俱备，才能迎着我国深化改革的东风，才能安全涉过深水区，最终实现这“惊险一跃”�?/font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">一是不断推动资本市场的发展与成熟�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">资本市场的发展对于利率市场化进程意义重大，对于起步较晚、发展相对不足的我国更为重要。一方面，资本市场尤其是固定收益市场的发展，本身就是利率市场化的“试验田”，债券的定价本身就是市场机制作用的结果。在利率市场化下，基于债券市场而形成的收益率曲线，可以为银行尤其是中小银行的存贷款定价提供一个基准。另一方面，它为银行资产配置、中间业务开展和风险缓释提供“池子”和渠道，使得银行能够在存贷利差缩小的情况下，通过中间业务的发展维持盈利能力。事实上，正是由于资本市场的发达，使美国和日本等国家在实现存款利率市场化后，银行非息收入增速快速提高，很好地弥补了利差缩小对银行盈利的不利影响�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">二是适时推动存款保险制度的建立�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">在实现利率市场化后，金融机构之间的竞争将更加激烈，优胜劣汰不可避免。银行为获得存款，可能会忽视风险过度扩张。资金获得成本的提高和自身面临风险的增加，使得那些风控能力较弱的银行容易陷入经营困境，进而造成挤兑事件，并通过金融体系的高传染性传导至整个银行业。避免这种状况出现的一个可行思路是建立存款保险制度，它既可以约束银行行为，也可以有效避免个别银行破产而可能引起的挤兑，切断风险传染的途径，维护整个银行业体系稳健。正因如此，国际上多数国家在实现利率市场化之前，便都建立了存款保险制度。随着中国利率市场化进程的加快，建立存款保险制度的必要性也在不断凸显。这可能也是未来我国利率市场化进程中另一个较大跨越�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 30.1pt" class="MsoNormal"><font style="line-height: 200%"><b style="line-height: 200%"><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">三是培育一个适度竞争和治理有效的银行体系�?/span></b><span style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312; color: black; font-size: 15pt">利率市场化后，银行成为具有充分定价权的主体。但这种充分自主权的发挥会否按照设想的路径发展，还需要形成一个适度竞争和治理有效的银行体系。一方面，银行业要适度增加竞争。存款利率管制的放开会加大银行贷款获取成本，如果银行体系竞争不足，银行相对于企业地位强势，可能会造成成本的增加被部分甚至全部转嫁给实体企业，提高了实体企业的融资成本。因此，适度增加银行业的竞争，鼓励民营资本进入银行业，对更好发挥利率市场化的效果具有积极作用。另一方面，银行业要完善内部治理，提升风险识别和管理能力。利率市场化必然导致银行获得存款的成本提高，同时使银行增加对中小企业、房地产领域的信贷投入，这就不可避免地提高了商业银行的信用风险，对其风险识别和管理能力是一个重要考验。因此，完善内部公司治理结构、提高风险管理能力也成为商业银行应对利率市场化进程必须要做的准备之一�?/span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; 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